I’ve been sat here in sunny Cyprus in the midst of a country default and people have been calling me asking me what is going to happen next as they remember me talking about bank failures a few years ago.
The truth is, they have likely already lost a lot of their money unless they are lucky enough for a social upturn and a relaxation of the government draconian measures to try to stop a bank run.
Hopefully us Cypriot socionomists saw it coming and got our savings into a safe place at least two years before it happened. (See my last post on the coming global bank run)
Socionomics cannot predict where in the world a bank run will occur first but it can predict the bank run itself.
Well. I have sat here in a ‘state of no thought’ for a good hour and I figured its time for another post.
Reviewing past predictions:
Ok so the predictions may be right but the timing was definitely a little early. Personally I would rather be early than late. So what is going to happen next?
The stock market turned up as governments around the world basically gave away free money to try to shore up the economy. Trouble is, us socionomists know that no government is truly in control of anything and that it is the social mood that controls the behaviour of world economics as well as fashion trends and even war! to name a few.
So the unfolding of the pattern is a variation of what I spoke about before, but that is partly because the Dow jones is measured in fiat currency.
When you look at the markets in terms of real money (gold) you can see that the crash is already happening and that the illusion that everything is ok is playing out really well.
The truth is, everything is going according to the unfolding of the pattern and we are getting closer to observing the play out of a very large social downturn which will seemingly look like huge calamity.
Those who are new to socionomics. Do not despair, humanity has to go through this seemingly terrible transition in order to evolve to the next level of consciousness. It’s all a fractal pattern you see and we as a species are poised to take the next step in terms of the evolution of our understanding of the the universe.
Back to brass tactics. So what Happens next? And what does it mean for our pockets?
Well one thing that is showing me that the governments are not in control is a news article I read a few weeks ago. RBS (in the UK) is sat on 20 Billion pounds of ‘quantitively eased’ cash and yet they are moaning that they cannot lend it out.
You see the governments can attempt to print and pump as much money as they like into the system and it is a futile attempt to get the economy going under current central banking monetary policy.
To reiterate an old post. Money = Debt so the only way to get money into the system is through loans.
Trouble is, as the social mood is one of conservation instead of risk taking, the actual people do not want to borrow any more money. You may notice that you have been feeling that way yourself. Save money get out of debt. That sort of thing.
It’s as simple as that yet most of the world cannot understand this. Even most people who read this will say to themselves, bah, Stav is talking shit. You see, I now understand that because people are all victims of the mood and that the very same current mood will not allow them to believe what I say.
Contemplating the previous sentence, I still do believe that writing this blog post is the right thing to do, as things start to play out more and more I do hope that more and more people will get a grasp of this new fantastic subject and hopefully avert their own demise in this huge worldwide elimination of wealth.
Well the title is probably a give away that I am going to talk about property prices but not in too much depth like I used to.
Perhaps I should use bullet points, yes, here goes, in order.
- markets are beginning to voraciously oscillate as we near a final top.
- banking crisis is slowly unfolding into a full blown collapse
- Credit is seizing up again or will be soon, country dependant
- Banks will have to claim from insurance companies simultaneously which will cause huge default by the insurance companies themselves.
- businesses that are on the breadline will pop as the banks pull in the loans and overdrafts in order to save their own skins. (remember, they are human too)
- lots of people (over 30% of most nations and up to 50%+) will lose their cushy jobs and be forced to take on any old job even at a lesser income.
- people will lose their houses as they cannot afford the mortgage repayments
- they will end up moving in with family, friends or worse end up homeless.
- this will put a huge percentage of the UK (and world) properties on the market
So fast forwarding into the future we now have a situation where there are millions of properties on the market but to make things worse, the banks will have nearly completely stopped lending money out and thousands of them will be bust.
Now properties are probably one of the most expensive items a person will ever buy and bank loans are what keep the properties selling at the current ludicrous levels that they have achieved.
With no bank loans available and millions of properties on the market due to foreclosures, properties will take the biggest price hit that they have ever taken in recent documented history. Upwards of 50%, more likely around 70% from their peak prices in 2007-08
We may ask, so why don’t the banks carry on lending instead of tightening their belts as they will cause their own destruction and the destruction of the property market.
The simple reason is, banks are run by people and people are subject to the social mood which is increasingly becoming one of fear and self preservation, some of the more intelligent bankers may know deep down what needs doing but be overcome by this very strong primal urge to protect oneself which inevitably will lead to them making the exact opposite decision of what they are supposed to make.
Decisions made in fear are often the wrong decisions.
To give you an example of how we are not logical beings even though we think we are. How many times have you logically known that something is bad for you. Take smoking for instance, yet you still do it against your better judgement.
For the non smokers, how many of you have either been in or known a friend to be in a bad relationship and that person knows that logically they should end it but they can’t because of either love or even fear.
We, my friends are not logical beings at all and anybody who tries to argue the case is in a losing battle.
If I have stated this before then apologies but I wish to iterate that only 1 in 10,000 people around the world will be reading this stuff and understanding it.
I also realise that the other 9,999 will dismiss it and hence why this site will not get a lot of hits until perhaps after the crash when it is too late. It’s the nature of our being.
So where is the good news in all this.
The good news is that it is all part of natures evolutionary flow and through all the calamity we (the survivors at least) will come out of it into a new phase of world consciousness and perhaps even find some peace in a less manic world. That is as we come to the culmination of this 35 year mania. I do believe that we have just witnessed human kind go to the brink of huge mania where it seems that everybody is losing their minds chasing the ever harder to get dollar (or pound if you are British) I have observed people virtually sell their own mothers for cash and I for one look forward to the end of this manic insanity. I look forward to a poorer and more down to earth world nation. Less egoic and more Meek people, once again.
Apologies for spelling mistakes as I am on holiday on an iPad typing this and I now need to go and play with my kids in the pool before sunset.
The next blog will likely be about war and how socionomics predicts that the world will become even more unstable than it already is whilst we reach the bottom of this mood downturn.
Until then. Get out the citys. Get your money out the banks and turn it into pound notes or dollars. (Not euro!) and Stay safe!
P.S. if you are floating companies be very careful as the markets are poised to destroy floatations occurring during the rapid unfolding of this 300 year downturn. Have a plan B!
P.P.S. if y are indeed a struggling smoker you may be ready to switch to a healthy alternative to smoking. Visit http://www.vapehq.co.uk. It’s how I managed to quit smoking myself.
July 10, 2011 People are to be fleeing from Euro to Dollar. Peoples ignorance will soon be illuminated in a lightbulb moment.
I wish to relay the prediction that things are starting to come to a head in Europe. I expect in the next 6 months to see major issues in Europe and then to watch people flee the Euro and buy Dollars. Ensure that any of your savings that are held in Euro’s are switched to Dollar as the problem in Europe continues to unfold.
We are now looking towards a second bailout for portugal and Italy is also on the cards as they are in a bad way also.
You may recall my blog originally posted on Thursday, 29 April 2010 on my old blog site regarding the PIGS of Europe which then became the PIIGS of Europe (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) Well, as you have seen on the news it is becoming a more talked about subject this year as realisation kicks in.
These countries are now burdening Europe and causing a transfer of wealth from the richer nations to the poorer ones using tax payers money. Countries will eventually tire of constantly bailing out the weaker countries much like a father would tire of bailing out his useless son, only in the case of countries the bond is nowhere near as strong.
Once these countries do get tired and decide to stop, then nature will be allowed to take its course with the start of the collapse of the Euro and a return to a Europe that will once again, be arguing and warring with each other. It’s only a matter of time and a shift in social mood.
If you do still hold Euro, then i urge you to take action now. It is likely better to do it now and get ahead than try to chase along with everybody else when the move happens as it will likely unfold very swiftly once the penny drops.
July 8, 2011 Apple now leagues ahead. Google a close second although leave much to be desired in the simplicity and carefree operation stakes.
With 88% of Fortune 500 companies now rolling out iPhones and NASA choosing the platform to conduct tests in space. Surely you must now be convinced that Apple have really showed the world which is the undisputed best overall platform when considering an abundance of pro’s and cons for each?
I suppose people could always buy another phone just to be different? One day it would be great if every company integrated with everybody and worked towards a common goal for humanity rather than competing with each other.
I mean can you imagine if the best scientists and technicians at Google, Apple, Nokia and Microsoft all worked together to create one standard phone for all the world to use? It be made out of a culmination of the best materials with the best interface that suited all of humanities needs.
Sure we are all different but if you step back a little and take a look at us from the perspective of DNA. We are all 99.9% the same and therefore all have the same basic requirements!
Predictions for iPhone:
I sent an email to Steve Jobs in January 2011 recommending the two major next steps that i can see for Apple and their iOS platform.
1. Bring Nuance technology and integrate it into the phone
2. Look at removing the charger and replacing it with a magnetic resonance charging system.
Looking at the development version of this iOS 5, you can see that there is some Nuance integration in there :) and some rumours have already started that the 2012 iPhone may have an ‘alternative’ charing method. Mmmm interesting.
You guys may have read not long back that a team of people built a mood reader of the stock market based on twitter and found that it was very accurately predicting the stock market. (See this news article)
They expected that the Dow Would first rise and then on twitter you would see people feeling good and vice versa but they had a bit of a suprise when they discovered that it was the other way round. ie. The mood changes first, and then the stock market follows 2-5 days later.
I was reading that they still cannot explain this phenomenon yet people who have studied socionomics will understand exactly why they got that result.
I have been building my own little system that reads twitter and then gives back a result. It is in its very early stages but i will keep you posted on how it develops. Being from a software background and i love challenges like this so i am confident in achieving a good result and then perhaps even putting it up on this website. This will be developed in my spare time between running business and a family so it may take a short while.
P.S. Current update on the markets: Enjoy this final wave 2 leg up as this is a good mood while it lasts. Next stop, down, and in a big way. Make sure you are not over exposed on the long side or you may get caught up in the cross fire and volatility starts to rise and people pull out of equities and commodities in an all the same market fall.
Just a quick blog post with regard to current social mood.
If we are indeed in Wave 2 of a 5 wave decline (which i strongly believe) then at this very moment we are currently at the peak of good feeling about our future.
Once wave 3 down starts people will not recognise it until we hit mid point. If Robert Prechter is correct then this should occur sometime mid 2012.
Once Wave 3 is truly underway, be ready to turn on the news and watch a credit crunch style panic in the financial markets. As wave 3 is often the most powerful wave. This panic should be much stronger than the panic we witnessed during the first Credit Crunch.
I am also expecting oil prices, food prices, and gold and also commodities to fall in an all the same market manoeuvre last seen during the 1930′s depression.
If you are in the financial sector then either get out or make sure you are a core worker. If you hold Euro’s get into dollar. If you hold lots of property. Cut any losses and run. If you are thinking of selling your car because your commitment on it is too great? Sell it this summer. Getting out of debt is always a good thing but now it is more important than ever. Try to get out of debt quickly as deflationary pressures start to mount up, cutting your earnings and making it harder to pay off your debt.
If you are thinking of starting a business then look at sectors such as the property repossessions market or cheap affordable food. Steer clear of the luxury sector and lots of rich people start to decrease their spending as their wealth starts to drop.
Just quickly on the subject of Europe:
The likelihood in Europe will be that countries either get fed up, or run out of money themselves to bail out their EU counterparts. They will, eventually, allow one of the countries to fail.
This should be catastrophic to the Euro when one of the member states is allowed to fail.
If things look hopeless and grim in 2012, please remember that once it has played out to the bottom, that social mood will change once again and look upwards around 2016 onwards.
It is all just part of humanities progress. I hope that there are not too many casualties during this transitional period.
I am hopeful that around 2016, that people will start to value each other more and start to care more about each other and the environment and we reach the tip of hopelessness and fear.
I personally predict that we are about to embark on a Green revolution (once the shit has hit the economic fan) and that humanities consciousness will overall switch to the next level where we actually care about our planet a lot more.
Socionomics, to me, shows off the pattern of human evolution as it transitions us to the next stage of progress and consciousness.
Idealism? Well i am actually an optimist at heart and always have been :)
If you like my blogs then please subscribe to be kept informed of my occasional and sporadic blogs. If i see people taking an interest then i will blog some more.
The dollar is about to get strong. It is still weak at the moment and the credit crisis is starting up again in Europe which will cause the Euro to fall majorly against the Dollar. Greece and Portugal and Ireland are already in major trouble as their interest rates are increasing. I am just waiting for Spain and Italy to join them.
As the countries get closer to default the rate of interest they are getting charged goes up.
These are the interest rates that the countries now have to pay on their national debt.
Greece 12.50% (up from 10.35% in July 2010)
Ireland 9.72% (up from 5.41% in July 2010)
Portugal 7.90% (up from 5.44% in July 2010)
THATS MORE THAN MY SMALL COMPANY PAYS ON ITS LOANS BY FAR AND THESE ARE COUNTRIES!!! NOT COMPANIES
Soon Europe will not wish to carry on bailing these countries out, when that happens the Euro is going to lose a lot of value so have any currency but Euro. Even UK sterling is good but the dollar will grow the strongest as it has the most money in circulation and thus has the most money that will disappear from the system during defaults.
I have put all my money into Dollars now and wish for anyone holding Euro to do the same to save them from the loss.
Usually when the interest rate is low in a country that is when it is good to buy that currency. People that go for higher interest rates usually get killed in the devaluation. Look at what happened with Drachmes all those years ago because people thought they were getting good interest and when they came to change their money back to Sterling. They realised it was pretty much worthless. This will likely happen to the Euro as there are many weak countries pulling it down and the strong countries cannot carry the weak forever.
Remember how much the Euro fell during the first credit crunch? Well get ready for credit crunch 2. The big one.